SFO International Traffic Shifted in First Half of 2026
While travel from China remained stagnant, passenger volume from Manila jumped by 48% through June.
Updated on Sept. 27, 2026 in Air Travel
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San Francisco International Airport saw uneven recovery trends among international travelers during the first half of 2026. While overall international passenger volume remains near half of 2019 levels, key hubs across Asia saw diverging results.
Why it matters
Travel patterns impact the regional tourism economy, which serves as a major driver for hotels and local businesses across San Francisco and San Mateo counties. Current political tensions affecting U.S.-China flight caps continue to constrain the recovery of a historically vital visitor market.
Passenger volume from Manila to SFO surged 48% in the first half of 2026, while Beijing arrivals fell 7% compared to the prior period. Total international visitor volume in the region currently sits at 50% of the 2019 benchmark.
The players
San Francisco International Airport
The major international hub serving the Bay Area and the primary point of entry for overseas travelers.
United Airlines
The major carrier that expanded its service between Manila and San Francisco last fall.
The details
Growth in passenger volume from Manila and Singapore has helped offset slower traffic from traditional hubs like Seoul and Frankfurt. The U.S. and China currently maintain a strict cap of 50 direct flights per week, a policy that has kept mainland Chinese travel at half of 2019 levels. United Airlines sought to capture demand by adding a second daily flight between Manila and SFO last fall.
Timeline
2019 served as the pre-pandemic baseline for international arrivals.
2024 marked the start of the 50-flight weekly cap between the U.S. and China.
Fall 2025 saw the addition of a new United Airlines flight from Manila.
First half of 2026 provided the current passenger data period.
2027 is the target year for a projected recovery to 2.42 million visitors.
Across the Bay
The current stagnation of travel from mainland China is directly tied to the U.S.-China 50-flight weekly cap. This policy continues to prevent a full return to 2019 passenger levels despite recent growth in routes from Southeast Asia.
If you are traveling abroad or working in the regional tourism sector, expect flight capacity and destination availability to remain volatile through the end of the year. Industry projections indicate a potential increase in visitor volume by 2027 as global travel patterns continue to shift.
The takeaway
Travelers should monitor route changes and airline scheduling as local transit hubs adapt to changing political restrictions. Keep an eye on 2027 tourism forecasts to see if international arrivals meet the anticipated target of 2.42 million visitors.
Further reading
For more updates on regional flight routes and traveler trends, explore our Air Travel coverage.
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